...submitted by Kathy McDonald Corey
1960
In
1998, Kodak had 170,000
employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within
just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went
bankrupt.
What
happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next
10 years and, most people won't see it coming. Did you think in
1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film
again?
Yet
digital cameras were invented in 1975.
The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore 's
law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a
disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became
mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen
again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and
electric cars, education, 3Dprinting, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential
Age .
Software
will disrupt most
traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. Uber is just a software
tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest
taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel
company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial
Intelligence:
Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world .
This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10
years earlier than expected. In the US , young
lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson,
you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70%
accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop
immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future,
only specialists will remain.
Watson
already helps nurses diagnosing cancer,
its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.
Facebook
now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces
better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans. (NEVER!/Albert)
Autonomous
cars : In 2018
the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around
2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want
to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone,
it will show up at your location and drive you to your
destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and can be productive while driving.
Our
kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars
for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2
million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km),
with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6
million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives
each year.
Most
car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional
car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a
better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google)
will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on
wheels.
Many
engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of
Tesla.
Insurance
companies will have massive trouble because without accidents,
the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car
insurance business model will disappear.
Real
estate will change.
Because if you can work while you commute, people will move
further away to live in a more beautiful neighbourhood.
Electric
cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be
less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar
production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but
you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Last
year, more solar energy was installed worldwide
than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit
access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar
installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of
that strategy.
With
cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination
of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25
cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have
scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if
anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health:
The Tricorder X price
will be announced this year. There are companies who will build
a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star
Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan,
your blood sample and you breath into it.
It
then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any
disease.. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on
this planet will have access to world class medical analysis,
nearly for free Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D
printing: The price of the
cheapest 3D printer came
down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it
became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already
started 3D printing shoes.
Some
spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the
large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At
the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print
your perfect shoe at home.
In
China , they already 3D printed and built a complete
6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything
that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business
opportunities: If
you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself:
"In the future, do I think we will have that?" and if the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If
it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.
Work
: 70-80% of jobs will disappear
in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but
it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.
This will require a rethink on wealth distribution.
Agriculture
: There will be a $100 agricultural
robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then
become managers of their field instead of working all day on their
fields.
Aeroponics
will need much less water.
The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be
cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all
agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we
don't need that space anymore.
There
are several start-ups who will bring insect protein to the
market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It
will be labelled as "alternative protein source"
(because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There
is an app called "moodies"
which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020
there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if
you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being
displayed when they're telling the truth and when
they're not.